Trends as Changes in Variance: The Case of Tax Noncompliance

In a recent survey, Schneider and Enste (2000) report that the “shadow” economies of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations grew from 11.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1989-90 to 16.9 percent of GDP in 1996-97. After reviewing a number of factors that could account for this trend, the authors conclude, “an increasing burden of taxation and Social Security payments, combined with rising State regulatory activities and labor market restrictions (e.g., forced reduction in working hours), are the major driving forces for the size and growth of the shadow economy.” They reason that higher taxes and increased regulation of business create an incentive to work in the shadow economy where earnings may go unreported and tax evasion is difficult to detect. In a recent update, Schneider (2002) reaffirms his earlier view but adds the following caveat, “major tax rate reductions will not lead to a substantial decrease of the shadow economy. They will only be able to stabilize the size of the shadow economy and avoid a further increase.” The problem, he says, is that once people are engaged in the shadow economy, it is difficult to get them to stop.